← Research

Why an edge should exist / hypothesis

Market folklore; tested as a known null-candidate — the discipline of 'test even the absurd, but rigorously'.

Construction

Mercury retrograde windows, lunar phases, zodiac transits vs BTC returns.

Test data

Multi-year BTC history + astronomical calendar.

Results

Zero edge everywhere. Aside: Google Trends 'horoscope' correlates with volatility (r=0.28) — but that's a retail-attention proxy, not astrology.

Validation

All 12 signs — null.

Root cause

No mechanism. An example of what an honest null looks like and why correlation ≠ causation.

Verdict

Dead (as expected). A showcase case for the methodology.

Source

archive/ASTROLOGY_BTC_RESEARCH.md